WeatherStory Allergy Index 2026

The 100 largest U.S. metros, ranked by a modeled seasonal pollen-load index — tree, grass, and ragweed intensity multiplied by season length. Cape Coral, FL leads with a load index of 57. A transparent, always-current alternative to static “allergy capitals” lists.

Top 20 worst U.S. metros for allergies (2026)

  1. #1Cape Coral, FL57
  2. #2Miami, FL54
  3. #3San Juan, PR54
  4. #4Bonita Springs, FL54
  5. #5Orlando, FL49
  6. #6Dallas, TX49
  7. #7Tampa, FL49
  8. #8Indianapolis, IN49
  9. #9Cincinnati, OH49
  10. #10Kansas City, MO49
  11. #11Columbus, OH49
  12. #12Charlotte, NC49
  13. #13Nashville, TN49
  14. #14Raleigh, NC49
  15. #15Memphis, TN49
  16. #16Oklahoma City, OK49
  17. #17Fort Worth, TX49
  18. #18Tulsa, OK49
  19. #19Charleston, SC49
  20. #20Dayton, OH49

The 20 highest pollen-load U.S. metros

Each dot is a top-20 metro, shaded by its pollen-load rank (darkest = worst). The top 10 are labeled; contiguous U.S. plus the Alaska and Hawaii insets — Puerto Rico is ranked in the table but is outside this projection.

9. Cincinnati10. Kansas City5. Orlando6. Dallas7. Tampa8. Indianapolis1. Cape Coral2. Miami4. Bonita Springs
Source: WeatherStory Allergy Index 2026 — a modeled seasonal pollen-load ranking, not measured counts. See methodology.

How the index is built

Every metro is assigned one of nine U.S. climate regions, and its tree and grass seasons are shifted by latitude — Hopkins’ bioclimatic law puts phenological events roughly four days later per degree north. That yields a 12-month intensity curve (0–4, from None to Very High) for each pollen type. We multiply each type’s peak intensity by the number of months it stays in season and sum tree, grass, and ragweed into the load index. This is a modeled seasonal pollen-load ranking — not a copy of AAFA’s proprietary Allergy Capitals score (which also weights over-the-counter medication use and allergist density), and not measured pollen counts. AAFA established the ranked-annual-report concept; this is a transparent, reproducible take on it. Full formula, thresholds, and sources: methodology.

What is a high pollen count?

A pollen count is measured in grains per cubic meter of air (grains/m³), averaged over 24 hours, and rated by the AAAAI National Allergy Bureau (NAB) on a Low → Very High scale. The thresholds differ by pollen type: grass counts as “High” at just 20 grains/m³, while tree pollen isn’t “High” until 90.

NAB pollen-count categories, grains/m³ (by pollen type)
CategoryTreeGrassWeed (ragweed)
Low0–140–40–9
Moderate15–895–1910–49
High90–1,49920–19950–499
Very High1,500+200+500+

Those grains/m³ categories describe a single day’s measured count. The WeatherStory Allergy Index above is a different measure — a modeled seasonal load score that multiplies each pollen type’s peak intensity by how long its season runs, so it ranks metros over a whole year rather than one day. For the full per-type ranges and the separate 0–12 pollen index, see the pollen & allergy statistics hub.

When does allergy season start?

As of mid-July 2026, spring tree pollen has finished across the Lower 48, grass pollen is at or just past its early-summer peak, and ragweed — the dominant fall allergen — is still about a month from its typical mid-August onset.

Allergy season starts earlier the farther south and west you live. The map colors each state by the typical first month of the year with active pollen among its ranked metros — as early as January in the warmest states. Enter your ZIP to see your nearest ranked metro’s onset month, worst allergen, and rank.

Source: WeatherStory Allergy Index 2026, modal season-onset month per state. A modeled estimate — see methodology.

Pollen season calendar: when tree, grass & ragweed peak

Three pollen types hand off across the year in the same order almost everywhere in the U.S. — trees first, then grasses, then ragweed — each shifted earlier the farther south you live.

AllergenSeasonPeak months
TreeLate winter to late springMarch–May (as early as December–February in the warm South)
GrassLate spring through summerMay–July (longer and later in the South and West)
Ragweed (weed)Late summer through fallAugust–October, ending at the first hard freeze (about 28°F)

Windows are typical U.S. ranges (AAFA / ACAAI); local start dates shift with latitude and the year’s weather.

Quotable lines for the top 10 metros

One ready-to-cite sentence per metro. Copy with attribution to “WeatherStory Allergy Index 2026.”

Full ranking: 100 U.S. metros

#MetroWorst allergenSeason startsSeason lengthLoad index
1Cape Coral, FLGrass (year-round)January365 days57
2Miami, FLGrass (year-round)January365 days54
3San Juan, PRGrass (year-round)January365 days54
4Bonita Springs, FLGrass (year-round)January365 days54
5Orlando, FLGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days49
6Dallas, TXGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days49
7Tampa, FLGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days49
8Indianapolis, INGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
9Cincinnati, OHGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
10Kansas City, MOGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
11Columbus, OHGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
12Charlotte, NCGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
13Nashville, TNGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
14Raleigh, NCGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
15Memphis, TNGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
16Oklahoma City, OKGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
17Fort Worth, TXGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days49
18Tulsa, OKGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
19Charleston, SCGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days49
20Dayton, OHGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
21Knoxville, TNGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
22Palm Bay, FLGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days49
23Port St. Lucie, FLGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days49
24Kissimmee, FLGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days49
25Little Rock, ARGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days49
26Houston, TXGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days45
27St. Louis, MOGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days45
28San Antonio, TXGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days45
29Austin, TXGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days45
30Virginia Beach, VAGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days45
31Jacksonville, FLGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days45
32Richmond, VAGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days45
33Louisville, KYGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days45
34New Orleans, LAGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days45
35Baton Rouge, LAGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days45
36Wichita, KSGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days45
37Atlanta, GAGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days42
38McAllen, TXGrass (Apr–Sep)January335 days42
39Birmingham, ALGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days42
40Columbia, SCGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days42
41Denton, TXGrass (Apr–Sep)February304 days42
42San Francisco, CATree (Jan–Apr)January304 days41
43Sacramento, CATree (Jan–Apr)January304 days41
44San Jose, CATree (Jan–Apr)January304 days41
45Fresno, CATree (Jan–Apr)January304 days41
46Concord, CATree (Jan–Apr)January304 days41
47San Diego, CATree (Jan–Apr)January304 days41
48Portland, ORGrass (Apr–Jul)January304 days41
49Bakersfield, CATree (Jan–Apr)January304 days41
50Reno, NVTree (Jan–Apr)January304 days41
51Milwaukee, WITree (Mar–May)March244 days37
52Rochester, NYTree (Mar–May)March244 days37
53Madison, WITree (Mar–May)March244 days37
54Chicago, ILTree (Mar–May)March244 days37
55Washington, DCTree (Mar–May)February274 days37
56Boston, MATree (Mar–May)March244 days37
57Detroit, MITree (Mar–May)March244 days37
58Baltimore, MDTree (Mar–May)February274 days37
59Cleveland, OHTree (Mar–May)March244 days37
60Providence, RITree (Mar–May)March244 days37
61Hartford, CTTree (Mar–May)March244 days37
62Buffalo, NYTree (Mar–May)March244 days37
63Grand Rapids, MITree (Mar–May)March244 days37
64Albany, NYTree (Mar–May)March244 days37
65Worcester, MATree (Mar–May)March244 days37
66Toledo, OHTree (Mar–May)March244 days37
67Minneapolis, MNTree (Mar–May)March274 days36
68Omaha, NETree (Mar–May)March274 days36
69Des Moines, IATree (Mar–May)March274 days36
70Las Vegas, NVTree (Jan–Apr)January304 days36
71Albuquerque, NMTree (Jan–Apr)January304 days36
72Tucson, AZTree (Jan–Apr)January304 days36
73El Paso, TXTree (Jan–Apr)January304 days36
74Salt Lake City, UTTree (Mar–May)March244 days33
75Colorado Springs, COTree (Mar–May)February274 days33
76Ogden, UTTree (Mar–May)March244 days33
77New York, NYTree (Mar–May)March244 days30
78Los Angeles, CATree (Jan–Apr)January274 days30
79Seattle, WATree (Feb–May)February274 days30
80Brooklyn, NYTree (Mar–May)March244 days30
81Queens, NYTree (Mar–May)March244 days30
82Riverside, CATree (Jan–Apr)January274 days30
83Manhattan, NYTree (Mar–May)March244 days30
84Mission Viejo, CATree (Jan–Apr)January274 days30
85Allentown, PATree (Mar–May)March244 days30
86Staten Island, NYTree (Mar–May)March244 days30
87Long Beach, CATree (Jan–Apr)January274 days30
88Philadelphia, PATree (Mar–May)March244 days30
89Pittsburgh, PATree (Mar–May)March244 days30
90Bronx, NYTree (Mar–May)March244 days30
91Bridgeport, CTTree (Mar–May)March244 days30
92New Haven, CTTree (Mar–May)March244 days30
93Akron, OHTree (Mar–May)March244 days30
94Harrisburg, PATree (Mar–May)March244 days30
95Denver, COTree (Mar–May)March244 days27
96Provo, UTTree (Mar–May)March244 days27
97Spokane, WATree (Mar–May)April213 days27
98Phoenix, AZTree (Jan–Apr)January274 days26
99Mesa, AZTree (Jan–Apr)January274 days26
100Boise, IDRagweed (Aug–Oct)March244 days25

“Worst allergen” is the pollen type with the highest modeled load (peak intensity × season length) and its peak-month window. “Season starts” is the first month of the year with any active pollen; “season length” is the total active window across all three allergens. Load index = the sum of (peak × months in season) for tree, grass, and ragweed.

Frequently asked

What is the WeatherStory Allergy Index?
It is a modeled seasonal pollen-load ranking of the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. For each metro it scores modeled tree, grass, and ragweed intensity against how long each season lasts, then sums the three into one load index. It is inspired by AAFA's long-running Allergy Capitals report but built from a transparent, always-current seasonal model rather than a proprietary yearly score.
Is this the same as AAFA's Allergy Capitals?
No. AAFA's Allergy Capitals report also weights over-the-counter allergy-medicine use and the number of board-certified allergists in each metro. The WeatherStory Allergy Index computes only modeled seasonal pollen load, from regional season windows and each city's latitude rather than measured daily counts. Read it as a related but different, transparently reproducible ranking — not a copy of AAFA's number.
Which U.S. metro ranks #1 in 2026?
Cape Coral, Florida tops the 2026 index with a seasonal load index of 57. Its worst allergen is grass, whose season runs about 365 days, and its overall active-pollen window spans roughly 365 days a year.
When does allergy season start?
It depends where you live, which is why this report includes an onset map. In the warm South and West, tree and grass pollen can be active as early as January; across the northern tier, tree pollen usually leads in March or April. The map colors each state by the typical first month of the year with active pollen among its ranked metros. Enter your ZIP to see your nearest metro's onset month.
How long is the typical pollen season?
Across the 100 ranked metros, the median active-pollen window — any of tree, grass, or ragweed at Low or above — is about 304 days, and 19 metros run a near-year-round season of 330+ days. Warm, humid metros that stack tree, grass, and ragweed back to back carry the longest seasons; short, cold, or dry climates carry the shortest.
How accurate is the ranking?
It is a model, not a measurement. The intensity values come from published regional season windows (AAFA/ACAAI) shifted by latitude (Hopkins' bioclimatic law), not from a pollen-counting station in each city, so treat small rank gaps between neighbors as noise, not precision. The value is transparency: the formula is published on the methodology page, so anyone can trace why a metro lands where it does.
Can I republish the ranking?
Yes — with attribution. Please credit "WeatherStory Allergy Index 2026 (weatherstory.io/allergy-index/2026)" and link the methodology page. A recommended citation line is provided at the bottom of this report.

Recommended citation

WeatherStory Allergy Index 2026. Weather Story, 2026-07-11. A modeled seasonal pollen-load ranking of the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. https://weatherstory.io/allergy-index/2026. Methodology: https://weatherstory.io/methodology.

More pollen & allergy data

See the always-current worst cities for allergies ranking, the pollen & allergy statistics hub, or browse pollen counts by city for the full per-city tree, grass, and ragweed calendars.